If Macron is re-elected, he will need to gain the confidence of centrist voters on both sides of the political spectrum – especially if he wants to push back against his reputation of being a ‘ president for the rich’. Regardless of the outcome, French society will continue to be divided and French politics torn between a smaller, more concentrated centre, and two extremes. What a Macron victory means for France and Europe If Macron is narrowly re-elected, he is likely to spend the first weeks of his Presidency attempting to rebuild trust with voters ahead of the June elections.
This situation, known as ‘cohabitation’, would make it much harder for whoever wins the presidency to pass legislation. It’s entirely possible that the opposition will secure more seats. What’s more, the President often waits until after the legislative elections to pick a prime minister to ensure that they are from the party with the highest number of seats – or, failing that, who can secure majority support. It’s much easier for a President to pass legislation when they can count on the support of a legislative majority. Second, a narrow result could have a knock-on effect on the National Assembly elections on 12 and 19 June. First, this will be the second presidential election where neither the centre-right Republicans or the centre-left Socialists make it to the final round, a further sign of a fragmented political landscape. Macron is widely expected to get to the second round, alongside Le Pen for a repeat of their 2017 showdown. The importance of the parliamentary elections In such a scenario, it is easy to imagine a resurgence of gillet jaune protests where discontent is expressed on the street, rather than at the ballot box. Voters who feel they have been denied a true presidential campaign (where issues are debated at length) are more likely to be uneasy about whoever ends up in office. Many could decide to abstain, which is likely to give way to a much closer race. This lack of debate will have important implications for the final result.
#France presidential racr tv#
There have been some TV debates but none planned between all 12 candidates before the first round – though one is scheduled between the final two candidates on 20 April. It’s a lot harder to identify key promises this time round. Marine Le Pen had promised to take France out of the euro. In 2017, Socialist candidate Benoît Hamon had made universal income his central pledge. This year’s election has failed to generate enthusiasm. It’s a battle of ideals as much as it is a battle of ideas. This is why presidential campaigns are so important – candidates must talk about everything from pensions reform and electricity bills to France’s place in the world. They are the person who French voters turn to in times of crisis. They nominate the prime minister, who is responsible for the day-to-day coordination of the French government. The French President’s remit is broad: he or she is Head of State, Commander-in-Chief and France’s de facto foreign policy chief. In such a scenario, a second Macron term would be very different to the first. Pollsters are predicting high levels of abstention and a narrow victory in the second round. Up until now, Macron has been criticised for not taking the campaign seriously. The expectation is that President Emmanuel Macron, who is leading the polls at 27 %, will be re-elected – but it’ll be close. The more votes the candidate gets in the first and second rounds of voting, the stronger their popular mandate.
In France however, how a candidate wins the Presidency is just as important as winning itself. Out of 12 candidates running, the two with the most votes on Sunday will go head-to-head in a second round on 24 April. The implications are clear: an estimated 28 % of French voters are still not sure who to vote for on 10 April. There has been no overarching policy issue, or groups of issues, structuring the campaign. Even before the war in Ukraine broke out, the French presidential campaign was struggling to take off.
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